Adel Aliaskari,PMP
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Qualitative Risk Modeling In Primavera Risk Analysis by: Adel Aliaskari,PMP

As you know, we use Oracle Primavera Risk Analysis software
for modeling, evaluating and managing Risks in our project. There are so many
kinds of risks that all of us know in our project. We are unanimous in this
principal that all projects have risk!

It is essential that we don’t neglect to manage them .All
of us has an obvious understanding of type of risk that affects Time or Cost of
project directly like these: Extension of time of a task ,Being delay in start
of a task, Extra cost of Bulk or tagged materials and so on. We can assign
these kinds of risks directly to time and cost of each related task in software
and evaluate the impact.

But how about this kind of Risks: Poor understanding and detail
in specification,  Health risks for
employees in site place, Likelihood changes in our client managerial team,
Underestimating of inflation rate for the future ,UN Sanctions , a big brawl in
our project vicinity  or in  the worst case, happening a war in your
neighborhood! Or an opportunities like this: Reuse previous design work, it may
be possible to use designs created for previous project?

How we can confront them?

If we want to manage a risk, we have to model it and If we
want to model a risk, we should assign it to a task or resource (and so on to a
calendar) .But in these case studies, Those risks are overall and it is out of
our ability to determine obviously which activities or resources and how degree
will affect from these risks?

By the use of Risk Register in software, you can add
these qualitative risks to your plan and do all necessary analysis. After that,
you can offer mitigation solutions to decrease the impact of threat or promote
the impact of opportunities and build impacted plans according to Pre-mitigated
and Post-mitigated registered risks to analyze what will happen after utilize
mitigation solutions.

Also it is available to define the area of affects by risks
and formulate the calculation of Risk score.

At the next step, if you want, you can quantify
these risks and roughly evaluate the consequence of them in a range of
probability and impact on cost and schedule

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